• I studied the relationship between predators, nest dispersion, and nest success.
• I built an agent-based model using data from nesting waterfowl, skunks, and foxes.
• Predation risk is diluted when nests are clustered and predation is incidental.
• When predators respond strongly to nest density, widely spaced nests survive better.
• Habitat management that imposes nest clustering could create ecological traps.