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6-019-EnablingEpidemicExploration-ModelingScenario

Author(s): Brian Winkel

SIMIODE - Systemic Initiative for Modeling Investigations and Opportunities with Differential Equations

Keywords: Akaike Information Criterion Michaelis-Menten epidemic saturation gradient least sum of square errors

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Abstract

Resource Image We became aware of several interesting possibilities for a modeling opportunity with data and we invited you to explore the several routes to parameter estimation in a SIR model with respect to the data offered.

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Article Context

Resource Type
Differential Equation Type
Technique
Qualitative Analysis
Application Area
Course
Course Level
Lesson Length
Technology
Approach
Skills
Key Scientific Process Skills
Assessment Type
Pedagogical Approaches
Vision and Change Core Competencies - Ability
Principles of How People Learn
Bloom's Cognitive Level

Description

A boarding school is a somewhat closed community; all the students and teachers tend to live on or near campus, and the students do not regularly interact with people not in the boarding school community.

We give data for a flu outbreak at a boarding school in England. No one died in this flu outbreak as it was not Spanish Flu. These data were compiled from the Communicable Disease Surveillance Center and are given as an example in books on mathematical biology. The data values were extracted from a published graph.

Further, we move to a new SIR model in which we employ a Michaelis-Menten form of a saturated incidence rate between infectives and susceptibles. We suggest several strategies for estimating parameters in this newer model and challenge the reader to compare our results to the more traditional SIR model efforts.

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Authors

Author(s): Brian Winkel

SIMIODE - Systemic Initiative for Modeling Investigations and Opportunities with Differential Equations

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