Abstract

Citation

Researchers should cite this work as follows:

• Jean Marie Linhart (2022). 1-066-USCensusModeling-ModelingScenario. SIMIODE, QUBES Educational Resources. doi:10.25334/AWJG-7H27

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Article Context

Description

Analysis of the per-unit population growth leads to an understanding of the assumptions underlying each model.

Parameters in the exponential and logistic models can be estimated from per-unit population growth calculated from the data.

Parameters for all three models can also be estimated by nonlinear least squares curve fitting, and these yield models with much higherR² values, indicating better parameter estimates. Models can be evaluated by R² and on their predictive power. Despite the simplicity of the models, and the complicated nature of human population changes, all of these models do a surprisingly good job of matching the United States population data.