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Modeling Scenario

1-066-USCensusModeling-ModelingScenario

Author(s): Jean Marie Linhart

Keywords: data logistic population Gompertz census goodness of fit

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Abstract

Resource Image The United States Census, conducted every 10 years, gives data on the United States population, that can be modeled with the exponential, logistic, or Gompertz functions.

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Description

Analysis of the per-unit population growth leads to an understanding of the assumptions underlying each model.

Parameters in the exponential and logistic models can be estimated from per-unit population growth calculated from the data.

Parameters for all three models can also be estimated by nonlinear least squares curve fitting, and these yield models with much higherR2 values, indicating better parameter estimates. Models can be evaluated by R2 and on their predictive power. Despite the simplicity of the models, and the complicated nature of human population changes, all of these models do a surprisingly good job of matching the United States population data.

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Authors

Author(s): Jean Marie Linhart

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