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Modeling Scenario

1-039-StochasticPopModels-ModelingScenario

Author(s): Daniel Flath

Macalester College, St. Paul Mn USA

Keywords: Probability population dynamics Variance Mean stochastic deterministic

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Abstract

Resource Image We develop strategies for creating a population model using some simple probabilistic assumptions. These assumptions lead to a system of differential equations for the probability that a system is in state (or population size) n at time t.

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Article Context

Resource Type
Differential Equation Type
Qualitative Analysis
Technology
Approach
Skills
Key Scientific Process Skills
Pedagogical Approaches
Vision and Change Core Competencies - Ability
Bloom's Cognitive Level

Description

We go further and compare the mean population levels to the deterministic models from direct differential equations development.

We will develop stochastic or probabilistic models; for the probability that a population is size N at time t. In actual populations there is a random component to the growth that may not

be captured in simpler differential equations models. We examine this approach in a straightforward way.

We are going to describe the population by an infinite sequence of functions.

Article Files

Authors

Author(s): Daniel Flath

Macalester College, St. Paul Mn USA

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