Abstract

Citation

Researchers should cite this work as follows:

• William (Bill) Skerbitz (2022). 1-046-GoingViral-ModelingScenario. SIMIODE, QUBES Educational Resources. doi:10.25334/VYZX-3P28

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Article Context

Description

Suppose we have a class of n students (around 25-35 seems to work best – too small and we may not see a useful pattern and too large may take too long).

Number the students from 1 to n.  We will assume n = 32 students for the remainder of these instructions.  All students stand at their desks. 

Here is the rules for going viral.

1. Pick one student at random who will serve as the original carrier of the virus.   This is the initial condition P(0) = 1,  where P(t) represents the number of people (students) in the population who have been infected with the virus at time t in days.  As we progress through the simulation, the students who do NOT have the virus remain standing while those who contract the virus will sit.
2. Each iteration will represent one day in the life of this viral spread. At each iteration for the same number as are infected select randomly numbers from the TOTAL set of n = 32 numbers. For each number selected on this manner if the number selected is already associated with an infected student do nothing.  Otherwise, move the student associated with this number to the infected state and have the student sit down. For each day in the simulation note the number of newly infected students on this day, the total infected at the “end’ of this day, and the number of non-infected at the “end” of this day.
3. We make the following assumptions.
   1. Each carrier of the virus can pass the virus to at most one other person on a given day.
   2. Once a person has contracted the virus, they are no longer susceptible. If their number is called again, it is ignored and does not count multiple times toward the # infected.