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Modeling Scenario

6-001-Epidemic-ModelingScenario

Author(s): Sheila Miller

Formerly of New York City College of Technology, City University of New York, Brooklyn NY USA

Keywords: data difference equations parameter estimation continuous epidemic discrete boarding school

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Abstract

Resource Image This paper presents real-world data, a problem statement, and discussion of a common approach to modeling that data, including student responses. In particular, we provide time-series data on the number of boys bedridden due to an outbreak of influenza.

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Article Context

Resource Type
Differential Equation Type
Technique
Qualitative Analysis
Application Area
Course
Course Level
Lesson Length
Technology
Approach
Skills
Key Scientific Process Skills
Assessment Type
Pedagogical Approaches
Vision and Change Core Competencies - Ability
Principles of How People Learn
Bloom's Cognitive Level

Description

This paper presents real-world data, a problem statement, and discussion of a common approach to modeling that data, including student responses. In particular, we provide time-series data on the number of boys bedridden due to an outbreak of influenza at an English boarding school and ask students to build a mathematical model, either discrete or continuous, of this epidemic, and to estimate the parameters in their model and validate it against the data. Students will need access to a computer or computer lab with spreadsheet software, a computer algebra system, or a sufficient statistical analysis system such as R.

A boarding school is a relatively closed community in which all students live on campus, teachers tend to live on or near campus, and students do not regularly interact with people not in the boarding school community. We give data for an influenza outbreak at a boarding school in England during which there were no fatalities. These data were compiled from the Communicable Disease Surveillance Center from 1978. The data values were extracted from the graph.

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Authors

Author(s): Sheila Miller

Formerly of New York City College of Technology, City University of New York, Brooklyn NY USA

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