Abstract

Citation

Researchers should cite this work as follows:

• Driskell, L. (2022). 1-038-Ebola-ModelingScenario. SIMIODE, QUBES Educational Resources. doi:10.25334/PG2M-G512

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Article Context

Description

Students will use data published by the World Health Organization to model the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa. We begin with a simple exponential growth model and move through the modeling process to the logistic growth model. Both are separable differential equations. Students will investigate properties of the logistic growth model and will compare predicted values with observed values. Both quantitative and qualitative questions are asked throughout. This project can be used in a differential equations or modeling course as well as in the calculus sequence. The logistic growth model fits the data well and thus provides a simple introduction to modeling a real world situation.

Note that in the supplemental materials, an Excel file containing a complete data set with more dates and records is available which can be used for additional modeling projects. This Excel file includes the total number of cases of Ebola, the total number of deaths due to Ebola, the number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases, and the number of cases per country for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.