Abstract

Citation

Researchers should cite this work as follows:

• Ciarochei, J. (2023). 2020-Ciaroshi-How_COVID-19_Spreads_MathModels. SIMIODE, QUBES Educational Resources. doi:10.25334/3399-2Q90

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Article Context

Description

CIAROCHI, JENNIFER. 2020. How COVID-19 and Other Infecious Diseases Spread: Mathematical Modeling. 12 March 2020.  https://triplebyte.com/blog/modeling-infectious-diseases. Accessed 8 March 2023.

Introduction:

On December 31, 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan reported an outbreak of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that has since killed over 4,200 people. As of March 11, 2020, over 118,000 infections—spanning 113 countries—have been confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO is now describing the outbreak as a pandemic.

The virus is spreading rapidly. In the first month, the number of confirmed infections increased by over 1,000,000%. If the disease continued to spread at this rate, the entire global population could be infected before April. Fortunately, this is not how diseases actually spread, nor is it how they are modeled.

In the case of COVID-19, 90% of the confirmed infections are still restricted to four countries: China (67%), Italy (9%), Iran (7%), and South Korea (7%). However, these numbers are changing quickly. For example, China accounted for 74% of global cases on March 10.

Keywords: COVID, coronavirus, outbreak, Wuhan, disease