Abstract

Citation

Researchers should cite this work as follows:

• Darrell Pepper (2023). 6-003-SchoolFluEpidemic-ModelingScenario. SIMIODE, (Version 2.0). QUBES Educational Resources. doi:10.25334/B3V5-7F41

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Article Context

Description

Epidemics continue to have significant impacts on humans. The history of epidemics is well known, stemming back to the Black Death in the fourteenth century through measles, influenza, smallpox, AIDS, and the Ebola virus in more recent times. One of the most devastating epidemics was the influenza outbreak at the end of World War I. As a result of this disease, millions died around the world.

Influenza is one of the most contagious diseases spread among humans – over the past several years free flu shots have now been authorized for people throughout the US. When considering this disease, we can model the population as those susceptible (S(t)) and those with contagious infectives (I(t)) over time (t).

The susceptibles are those likely to catch the disease, while the contagious infectives are those infected with the disease who can communicate it to a susceptible.

We can model this behavior as simple rate equations, assuming that the populations of the susceptibles and infectives are large (to neglect random differences in people). We likewise assume that those who recover are then immune.