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Modeling Scenario

6-003-SchoolFluEpidemic-ModelingScenario

Author(s): Darrell Pepper

University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas NV USA

Keywords: infection epidemic SIR model flu peak school children

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Abstract

Resource Image We offer a model of the spread of flu in a school dormitory and are asked to find when the flu levels reach their peak and explain long term behavior of the spread of the flu.

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Article Context

Description

Epidemics continue to have significant impacts on humans. The history of epidemics is well known, stemming back to the Black Death in the fourteenth century through measles, influenza, smallpox, AIDS, and the Ebola virus in more recent times. One of the most devastating epidemics was the influenza outbreak at the end of World War I. As a result of this disease, millions died around the world.

Influenza is one of the most contagious diseases spread among humans – over the past several years free flu shots have now been authorized for people throughout the US. When considering this disease, we can model the population as those susceptible (S(t)) and those with contagious infectives (I(t)) over time (t).

The susceptibles are those likely to catch the disease, while the contagious infectives are those infected with the disease who can communicate it to a susceptible.

We can model this behavior as simple rate equations, assuming that the populations of the susceptibles and infectives are large (to neglect random differences in people). We likewise assume that those who recover are then immune.

Article Files

  • pdf 6-003-S-SchoolFluEpidemic-StudentVersion.pdf(PDF | 420 KB)
  • tex 6-003-S-SchoolFluEpidemic-StudentVersion.tex (Instructors only)(TEX | 8 KB)
  • nb 6-003-T-Mma-SchoolFluEpidemic-TeacherVersion.nb (Instructors only)(NB | 302 KB)
  • pdf 6-003-T-Mma-SchoolFluEpidemic-TeacherVersion.pdf (Instructors only)(PDF | 163 KB)
  • pdf 6-003-T-SchoolFluEpidemic-TeacherVersion.pdf (Instructors only)(PDF | 449 KB)
  • tex 6-003-T-SchoolFluEpidemic-TeacherVersion.tex (Instructors only)(TEX | 8 KB)
  • cls SIMIODE.cls(CLS | 7 KB)
  • jpg SimiodeLogo.jpg(JPG | 271 KB)
  • jpg SIRPlot.jpg(JPG | 15 KB)
  • jpg SIRPlotPic.jpg(JPG | 15 KB)
  • License terms

Authors

Author(s): Darrell Pepper

University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas NV USA

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