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Title

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1Phenology Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota (Project EDDIE) 1Phenology Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota (Project EDDIE): A focus on American elm

Authors

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1Pamela Freeman (The College of St. Scholastica) 1Kristine Hopfensperger ()
2Andrew Haveles () 2Kristine Hopfensperger (Northern Kentucky University)

Description

Old VersionNew Version
1<p><a href="http://projecteddie.org/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Project EDDIE</a>&nbsp;Environmental Data-Driven Inquiry &amp; Exploration) is a community effort aimed at developing teaching resources and instructors that address quantitative reasoning and scientific concepts using open inquiry of publicly available data.&nbsp;<a href="https://serc.carleton.edu/eddie/modules.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Project EDDIE modules</a>&nbsp;are designed with an A-B-C structure to make them flexible and adaptable to a range of student levels and course structures.</p>  1<p><a href="http://projecteddie.org/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Project EDDIE</a>&nbsp;Environmental Data-Driven Inquiry &amp; Exploration) is a community effort aimed at developing teaching resources and instructors that address quantitative reasoning and scientific concepts using open inquiry of publicly available data.&nbsp;<a href="https://serc.carleton.edu/eddie/modules.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Project EDDIE modules</a>&nbsp;are designed with an A-B-C structure to make them flexible and adaptable to a range of student levels and course structures.</p>  
2  2  
3<p><strong>Summary</strong></p>  3<p><strong>Summary</strong></p>  
4    
5<p>&nbsp;</p>    
6  4  
7<p>Seasonal events, for example flowering, fruiting, and the return of migrating birds, happen at particular times of the year. Some of these events happen in relation to climate, while others are dependent on other factors. As the climate changes, the timing of some events may change in some species. This exercise will help students evaluate how climate change has already affected species in Minnesota.</p>  5<p>Seasonal events, for example flowering, fruiting, and the return of migrating birds, happen at particular times of the year. Some of these events happen in relation to climate, while others are dependent on other factors. As the climate changes, the timing of some events may change in some species. This exercise will help students evaluate how climate change has already affected species in Minnesota.</p>  
8  6  
9<p>The American elm (<em>Ulmus americana</em>) is a deciduous species, and its range includes most of the eastern United States and a bit of southeast Canada. This elm is a hardy species and can grow to a considerable size. It grows well in urban areas, so it is common in many cities. Unfortunately, the species is also susceptible to Dutch elm disease and the tree populations can suffer from massive die offs. All of these characteristics have led naturalists to be interested in this species, so we have lots of data about its phenophases.</p>  7<p>The American elm (<em>Ulmus americana</em>) is a deciduous species, and its range includes most of the eastern United States and a bit of southeast Canada. This elm is a hardy species and can grow to a considerable size. It grows well in urban areas, so it is common in many cities. Unfortunately, the species is also susceptible to Dutch elm disease and the tree populations can suffer from massive die offs. All of these characteristics have led naturalists to be interested in this species, so we have lots of data about its phenophases.</p>  
10  8  
11<p>In this module, students will practice answering a specific question about how climate change has affected flowering date in American elm trees. After students learn to manipulate the elm data set, build graphs, and analyze the data with a regression, they can then practice on a species of their own interest. Students can then share their species&#39; information with the class for a larger discussion about what types of species may be affected by climate change.</p>  11<p>In this module, students will practice answering a specific question about how climate change has affected flowering date in American elm trees. Students will learn to manipulate the elm data set, build graphs, and analyze the data with a regression.&nbsp;</p>
12  10  
13<h2>Strengths of Module</h2>  11<h2>Strengths of Module</h2>  
14  12  
… … 
23   <li>demonstrate basic Excel skills (e.g. sort/filter, seek, graph)</li>  21   <li>demonstrate basic Excel skills (e.g. sort/filter, seek, graph)</li>  
24   <li>analyze phenological data to determine trends</li>  22   <li>analyze phenological data to determine trends</li>  
25   <li>run a regression analysis between phenophase and temperature</li>  23   <li>run a regression analysis between phenophase and temperature</li>  
26   <li>determine if, and if so, how, climate change has affected an organism of their choosing</li>    
27</ul>  24</ul>  
28  25  
29<h2>Context for Use</h2>  26<h2>Context for Use</h2>  
30  27  
31<p>This module is designed for an introductory-level course and can be used in majors or non-majors courses. The exercise assumes no prior knowledge of spreadsheet manipulation, work with large data sets, nor extensive climate change knowledge. The module was designed for an introductory course for biology majors that had covered the basics of climate change and reading figures. The students had not worked with any datasets and had not created any figures. We used the module to focus on the impact of climate change on biological systems.</p>  31<p>This module is designed for an introductory-level course with major&nbsp;and non-major students.&nbsp;The exercise assumes no prior knowledge of spreadsheet manipulation, work with large data sets, nor extensive climate change knowledge. The module was designed for an introductory course in environmental science&nbsp;that serves as a gen ed science course and had covered the basics of climate change and reading figures. We used the module to focus on the impact of climate change on organisms.</p>
32  29  
33<p>The module is designed for one class period of 65 min with an additional take home assignment. The short pre-class homework assignment is meant to get students thinking about what phenology is, where the data come from, and what information is contained in the data sets. It also gives students a chance to manipulate spreadsheets at their own pace before working with them in class. If you are teaching a longer class period or lab, you could introduce the data set the same day and may not need the pre-class assignment (the worksheet can stand alone from the pre-class homework). If you are using the module for a shorter class period, an online course, or a hybrid course, you may need to use two class periods, one for Activities A and B, and the second class for reiteration of the results from the elm regression and then reporting and discussion from Activity C.</p>  33<p>The module is designed for one class period of 75 min. There was no pre-work assigned; however, students were provided all materials before class if they wanted to spend time reviewing before class.&nbsp;If you are teaching a longer class period or lab, you could introduce the data set the same day and may not need the pre-class assignment (the worksheet can stand alone from the pre-class homework). This adaptation focused on Activities A and B only.</p>
34  31  
35<p>If your institution has a set of computers available for classroom use, you can use those to ensure all students have access to the same software editions. The exercise is functional for those students on a PC or Mac, and for those using Excel or Google Sheets.</p>  32<p>If your institution has a set of computers available for classroom use, you can use those to ensure all students have access to the same software editions. The exercise is functional for those students on a PC or Mac, and for those using Excel or Google Sheets.</p>  
36  33  
… … 
44  41  
45<blockquote>  42<blockquote>  
46<ul>  43<ul>  
47   <li><strong>Pre-module work:</strong>&nbsp;Pre-homework may be assigned if class time is short (&lt; 50-65 min). It introduces what phenology is, where the data come from, and what information is contained in the data sets. It also gives students practice with manipulating spreadsheets.</li>  47   <li><strong>Pre-module mini lecture:</strong>&nbsp;It introduces what phenology is, where the data come from, and what information is contained in the data sets.&nbsp;</li>
48   <li><strong>Activity A</strong>: Determine changes in flowering date for American elm in Ramsey Co, MN</li>  45   <li><strong>Activity A</strong>: Determine changes in flowering date for American elm in Ramsey Co, MN</li>  
49   <li><strong>Activity B</strong>: Determine significance of changes in flowering date</li>  46   <li><strong>Activity B</strong>: Determine significance of changes in flowering date</li>  
50   <li><strong>Activity C:</strong>&nbsp;Determine a phenophase (&quot;event&quot;) pattern for a Minnesota organism of students&#39; choice</li>    
51</ul>  47</ul>  
52</blockquote>  48</blockquote>  
53  49  
… … 
67   <li>Determine how climate has affected the flowering date of American elm.</li>  63   <li>Determine how climate has affected the flowering date of American elm.</li>  
68</ul>  64</ul>  
69  65  
70<h3>Activity C - Determine a phenophase (event) pattern for a Minnesota organism of your choice</h3>  70<h3><strong>About the Data Sets:</strong></h3>
71    
72<ul>    
73   <li>Identify an organism of interest in the database.</li>    
74   <li>Formulate a question that can be investigated given the available dataset.</li>    
75   <li>Identify and graph the phenophase of interest and the associated climate data.</li>    
76   <li>Determine the relationship between the phenophase and climate (run regression analysis).</li>    
77   <li>Share resulting figures with others and determine trends (or lack thereof).</li>    
78   <li>After comparison of trends, discuss what might limit an organism&#39;s ability to shift event (e.g. event based on light/dark hrs, temperatures, etc)</li>    
79</ul>    
80    
81<p><strong>About the Data Sets:</strong></p>    
82  67  
83<p>The MN Phenological Network (<a href="https://mnpn.usanpn.org/home">https://mnpn.usanpn.org/home</a>) downloadable data set is used with permission from the Minnesota Phenology Network (MNPN, 2020) and was available upon request. The full data set is available in the module. I thank the MNPN for supplying the data and the volunteer participants who gather data for the project.</p>  68<p>The MN Phenological Network (<a href="https://mnpn.usanpn.org/home">https://mnpn.usanpn.org/home</a>) downloadable data set is used with permission from the Minnesota Phenology Network (MNPN, 2020) and was available upon request. The full data set is available in the module. I thank the MNPN for supplying the data and the volunteer participants who gather data for the project.</p>  
84  69  
… … 
91   <p><a href="javascript:swapDiv(829292,true, 'inline')"><img alt="" height="10" src="https://serc.carleton.edu/images/twiddle-right.gif" width="12" />Phenology in MN Instructor notes.pdf -- educator-only file</a></p>  76   <p><a href="javascript:swapDiv(829292,true, 'inline')"><img alt="" height="10" src="https://serc.carleton.edu/images/twiddle-right.gif" width="12" />Phenology in MN Instructor notes.pdf -- educator-only file</a></p>  
92   </li>  77   </li>  
93   <li>Instructor&#39;s PowerPoint:&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/phenology_mn_slides.pptx">Phenology in MN slides.pptx</a>&nbsp;(PowerPoint 2007 (.pptx) 2.4MB Aug10 20)</li>  78   <li>Instructor&#39;s PowerPoint:&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/phenology_mn_slides.pptx">Phenology in MN slides.pptx</a>&nbsp;(PowerPoint 2007 (.pptx) 2.4MB Aug10 20)</li>  
  79   <li>&nbsp;</li>  
94   <li>Student Handout:&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/phenology_trends_class_activity_homework_student_handout_1597097489607306939.v2.docx">Phenology Trends class activity and homework - student handout.docx</a>&nbsp;(Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 54kB Oct28 20)</li>  80   <li>Student Handout:&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/phenology_trends_class_activity_homework_student_handout_1597097489607306939.v2.docx">Phenology Trends class activity and homework - student handout.docx</a>&nbsp;(Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 54kB Oct28 20)</li>  
95   <li>Datasets:&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/mnpn_master_dataset_2018.xlsx">MNPN master dataset 2018.xlsx</a>&nbsp;(Excel 2007 (.xlsx) 3.1MB Aug10 20)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/am_elm_data_off-line_work.xlsx">Am elm data for off-line work.xlsx</a>&nbsp;(Excel 2007 (.xlsx) 28kB Aug10 20)</li>  81   <li>Datasets:&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/mnpn_master_dataset_2018.xlsx">MNPN master dataset 2018.xlsx</a>&nbsp;(Excel 2007 (.xlsx) 3.1MB Aug10 20)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/eddie/earthecosystems/eddieevents/workshops/module_development_2019/participant_workspace/module_development/am_elm_data_off-line_work.xlsx">Am elm data for off-line work.xlsx</a>&nbsp;(Excel 2007 (.xlsx) 28kB Aug10 20)</li>  
96</ul>  82</ul>  
… … 
100<h3>Workflow of this module:</h3>  86<h3>Workflow of this module:</h3>  
101  87  
102<ol>  88<ol>  
103   <li>Assign the pre-class homework (if appropriate).</li>    
104   <li>Give students their handout when they arrive to class.</li>  89   <li>Give students their handout when they arrive to class.</li>  
105   <li>Instructor gives brief PowerPoint presentation with background material. Discussion of the pre-homework can be integrated into this presentation.</li>  105   <li>Instructor gives brief PowerPoint presentation with background material.&nbsp;</li>
106   <li>Students work through Activity A.</li>  91   <li>Students work through Activity A.</li>  
107   <li>Instructor gives a primer on regression and students work on Activity B</li>  92   <li>Instructor gives a primer on regression and students work on Activity B</li>  
108   <li>Students choose a phenophase and work toward running a regression with their new data.</li>    
109   <li>Students report to the class their chosen phenophase results for a larger discussion about trends in phenophases due to climate change.</li>    
110</ol>  93</ol>  
111  94  
112<h3>Notes on the student handout:</h3>  95<h3>Notes on the student handout:</h3>  
… … 
125  108  
126<p>Activity B: Students determine if there is a dependent relationship between flowering date and temperature.</p>  109<p>Activity B: Students determine if there is a dependent relationship between flowering date and temperature.</p>  
127  110  
128<p>Activity C: Students identify an answerable question, graph the appropriate data, test the relationship, and make a conclusion about their phenophase and climate effects.</p>    
129    
130<h2>References and Resources</h2>  111<h2>References and Resources</h2>  
131  112  
132<p>Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). 2020. Minnesota Climate Trends. Accessed [7.10.2020]. Available:&nbsp;<a href="https://arcgis.dnr.state.mn.us/ewr/climatetrends/">https://arcgis.dnr.state.mn.us/ewr/climatetrends/</a>&nbsp;.</p>  113<p>Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). 2020. Minnesota Climate Trends. Accessed [7.10.2020]. Available:&nbsp;<a href="https://arcgis.dnr.state.mn.us/ewr/climatetrends/">https://arcgis.dnr.state.mn.us/ewr/climatetrends/</a>&nbsp;.</p>  

Attachments

1 link — Phenology Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota 1 file — KristyHopfensperger/Phenology Climate Change_student handout_ENV110.pdf
2 file — KristyHopfensperger/Wk. 15_Climate and Phenology.pptx
3 link — Phenology Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota
4 file — KristyHopfensperger/pexels-kelly-lacy-4131782.jpg
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