This is an article in MAA's Innovative Teaching Exchange that describes strategies to get students past thoughtless number crunching, guessing, and intuition when it comes to solving probability problems.  

From the project website " Workshop Statistics:  Discovery with Data, A Bayesian Approach, Key College Press; ISBN: 1930190123 (coauthored with Allan J. Rossman of Dickinson College) is a collection of classroom and homework activities designed to introduce the student to concepts in data analysis, probability, and statistical inference.  Students work toward learning these concepts through the analysis of genuine data and hands-on probability...